Winsten, Oekraine, Griekenland en Olie, effecten op de beurzen

yogi

 

Mooie winsten halen de beurs omhoog en alles wat het woord dividend in zich heeft loopt nog sneller.

Men denkt dat er met Griekenland akkoord is, maar dat zien we pas maandag…

Oekranie, eerst maar eens zien of er zondag een wapenstilstand komt en dan zijn we er nog lang niet, de Russische trots is groter dan menigeen denkt…

Olie; de voorraden in Amerika bleken hoger dan verwacht gisteren en desondanks steeg de prijs ligt vandaag naar rond de $ 50. De meningen zijn enorm verdeeld het kan links of rechtsom. Morgen wordt de Baker Hughes Rig count erg belangrijk voor de toekomstige richting. De laatste telling liet een flinke daling zien, dus de productie in Amerika komt naar beneden, goed voor de prijs.

De Hughes rig count van 13 feb kwam uit op 1,358 een daling van bijna 7%, wat de olieprijzen verder naar boven zal jagen volgende week.
Brent nu 61,5 en wti 52,60

Succes met beleggen!

 

Greece; Een van mijn favoriete schrijvers Michael Lewis schreef het al in Okt 2010;

Hierbij het hele verhaal,hieronder wat leuke quotes;

The national railroad has annual revenues of 100 million euros against an annual wage bill of 400 million, plus 300 million euros in other expenses. The average state railroad employee earns 65,000 euros a year. Twenty years ago a successful businessman turned minister of finance named Stefanos Manos pointed out that it would be cheaper to put all Greece’s rail passengers into taxicabs: it’s still true.

When Michael Lewis met Papaconstantinou, last October, the Greek government had estimated its 2009 budget deficit at 3.7 percent. Two weeks later that number was revised upward to 12.5 percent and actually turned out to be nearly 14 percent. He was the man whose job it had been to figure out and explain to the world why. “The second day on the job I had to call a meeting to look at the budget,” he says. “I gathered everyone from the general accounting office, and we started this, like, discovery process.” Each day they discovered some incredible omission. A pension debt of a billion dollars every year somehow remained off the government’s books, where everyone pretended it did not exist, even though the government paid it; the hole in the pension plan for the self-employed was not the 300 million they had assumed but 1.1 billion euros; and so on. “At the end of each day I would say, ‘O.K., guys, is this all?’ And they would say ‘Yeah.’ The next morning there would be this little hand rising in the back of the room: ‘Actually, Minister, there’s this other 100-to-200-million-euro gap.’ ”By the final day of discovery, after the last little hand had gone up in the back of the room, a projected deficit of roughly 7 billion euros was actually more than 30 billion. The natural question—How is this possible?—is easily answered: until that moment, no one had bothered to count it all up. “We had no Congressional Budget Office,” explains the finance minister. “There was no independent statistical service.” The party in power simply gins up whatever numbers it likes, for its own purposes.

As he finishes his story the finance minister stresses that this isn’t a simple matter of the government lying about its expenditures. “This wasn’t all due to misreporting,” he says. “In 2009, tax collection disintegrated, because it was an election year.”

“The first thing a government does in an election year is to pull the tax collectors off the streets.”

Tax Collector No. 1—early 60s, business suit, tightly wound but not obviously nervous—arrived with a notebook filled with ideas for fixing the Greek tax-collection agency. He just took it for granted that I knew that the only Greeks who paid their taxes were the ones who could not avoid doing so—the salaried employees of corporations, who had their taxes withheld from their paychecks. The vast economy of self-employed workers—everyone from doctors to the guys who ran the kiosks that sold the International Herald Tribune—cheated (one big reason why Greece has the highest percentage of self-employed workers of any European country). “It’s become a cultural trait,” he said. “The Greek people never learned to pay their taxes. And they never did because no one is punished. No one has ever been punished. It’s a cavalier offense—like a gentleman not opening a door for a lady.”

The scale of Greek tax cheating was at least as incredible as its scope: an estimated two-thirds of Greek doctors reported incomes under 12,000 euros a year—which meant, because incomes below that amount weren’t taxable, that even plastic surgeons making millions a year paid no tax at all. The problem wasn’t the law—there was a law on the books that made it a jailable offense to cheat the government out of more than 150,000 euros—but its enforcement. “If the law was enforced,” the tax collector said, “every doctor in Greece would be in jail.” I laughed, and he gave me a stare. “I am completely serious.” One reason no one is ever prosecuted—apart from the fact that prosecution would seem arbitrary, as everyone is doing it—is that the Greek courts take up to 15 years to resolve tax cases. “The one who does not want to pay, and who gets caught, just goes to court,” he says. Somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of the activity in the Greek economy that might be subject to the income tax goes officially unrecorded, he says, compared with an average of about 18 percent in the rest of Europe.

als laatst:

The question everyone wants an answer to is: Will Greece default? There’s a school of thought that says they have no choice: the very measures the government imposes to cut costs and raise revenues will cause what is left of the productive economy to flee the country. The taxes are lower in Bulgaria, the workers more pliable in Romania. But there’s a second, more interesting question: Even if it is technically possible for these people to repay their debts, live within their means, and return to good standing inside the European Union, do they have the inner resources to do it? Or have they so lost their ability to feel connected to anything outside their small worlds that they would rather just shed themselves of the obligations? On the face of it, defaulting on their debts and walking away would seem a mad act: all Greek banks would instantly go bankrupt, the country would have no ability to pay for the many necessities it imports (oil, for instance), and the country would be punished for many years in the form of much higher interest rates, if and when it was allowed to borrow again. But the place does not behave as a collective; it lacks the monks’ instincts. It behaves as a collection of atomized particles, each of which has grown accustomed to pursuing its own interest at the expense of the common good. There’s no question that the government is resolved to at least try to re-create Greek civic life. The only question is: Can such a thing, once lost, ever be re-created?

 

Als de grieken hun belasting zouden betalen, zou er geen probleem zijn, maar ja de rijksten wonen nu al allemaal in Londen en de chinezen leveren hun spullen in de havens omdat de kosten zo laag zijn 😉

En de noordelijke landen maar boos zijn omdat ze niks van hun geld gaan terug zien en ze dat toch beloofd hadden aan ons? En de andere zuidelijke landen kijken wat ze van deze testcase kunnen leren.

2 zaken die de aandelenmarkten tegenhouden;

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(Alexis 😉 Zorba de Griek en Vladimir The Krim Reaper !

De meeting in Minsk woensdag wordt een lakmoesproef: of Moskou de separatisten kan en vooral ook wil dwingen akkoord te gaan met een meeromvattende vredesregeling of dat het spel in een versnelling komt en de situatie grimmiger wordt.

QE in Europa heeft de Europese aandelenmarkten naar een mooi niveau gebracht en door de ultra lage rentes hebben de meeste beleggers hun aankooplijsten in aandelen klaar liggen. De winsten over het 4e kwartaal zijn beter uitgekomen dan verwacht en er wordt nu jacht gemaakt op rendement. (Dividend) aandelen zijn favoriet.

De AEX blijft zich bewegen rond de 450, met de uitkomsten van de meetings deze week zullen we meer richting kunnen krijgen.

Voor mij was 2014 een stilstaand jaar met 0.5% daar ik flink in aandelen in de energie en grondstoffen sectoren zit. Dit jaar sta ik op een plus van boven de 9% wat voornamelijk komt doordat ik me meer en meer op mijn model ben gaan concentreren.

Ik ben van plan mijn portefeuille op te splitsen in een groei-portefeuille en een rendements-portefeuille, de eerste bestaande uit aandelen uit mijn model geconcentreerd op vermogensgroei met meer risico en de 2e met interessante hoog renderende obligaties en aandelen met een hoog dividend rendement.

Mijn portefeuille bij Probeleggen (nog veel cash, daar ik hier erg conservatief ben) zal bestaan uit een mix van deze portefeuilles.